Strategy’s 48 billion usd bitcoin bet and the one time they’d actually sell

strategy’s CEO just laid out the only scenario where they’d actually sell some of their bitcoin and it’s kinda wild

phong le basically said they’d only even think about selling as a total last resort if two things happen together
1 their stock trades below the value of their bitcoin stack (mNAV drops under 1x)
2 they cant raise any new capital anymore equity debt preferreds nothing

their whole model is built around the opposite situation when strategy trades at a premium they issue more shares or preferreds raise cash and use that to buy more bitcoin so each share ends up backed by more btc over time that’s what they keep calling “bitcoin yield per share”

le also admitted that with something like 700 to 800 million dollars a year in preferred dividends and other payments to make if that equity premium disappears for long enough selling a bit of the stack can actually be the “mathematically right” move to protect existing holders and keep that btc yield per share story alive not some “we lost faith in bitcoin” moment just pure balance sheet math

right now strategy holds almost 650k btc which is insane that’s about 48 billion usd of cost basis at roughly 74k per coin and close to 60 billion at recent prices so they’re literally the biggest corporate bitcoin holder on the planet

to calm everyone down after the latest dump they rolled out this new btc credit or “credit dashboard” where they show how their debt and preferreds are covered at different bitcoin prices according to their own numbers they still have about 5.9x btc assets to convertible debt if btc just sits around their ~74k average cost basis and even in a nasty 25k scenario they say it’s still about 2x coverage plus they keep bragging about a 70 plus year dividend runway at current prices

their view on bitcoin itself hasnt really changed they’re still in the “scarce non sovereign asset that people everywhere reach for when their local money sucks” camp think us plus places like argentina or turkey where inflation is brutal

the whole thing is kinda crazy because most bitcoin maxis love to say “we’ll never sell” but here you’ve got a listed company with almost a 60 billion usd position openly spelling out the one situation where selling some coins is on the table i kinda respect that they at least admit there is a worst case playbook instead of pretending bitcoin magically removes the need for risk management